Rental numbers for ZIP 94945 (Novato, CA)
Negative cash flow at any interest rate with 25% down: the rent does not cover operating costs and principal.
- Gross yield
- 4.5%
- rent x 12 / price
- Est. cap rate
- 2.0%
- NOI / price
- Cash flow
- -$3,972/mo
- at 7.78%, 25% down
- Typical price
- $1,062,000
- Zillow ZHVI, Aug 2026
- Typical rent
- $3,966/mo
- Zillow ZORI, Aug 2026
The pro forma
Typical home, default assumptions
| Operator | Line | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross rent | $47,592 | ||
| Vacancy | $2,380 | ||
| Management | $3,617 | ||
| Property tax | $7,957 | ||
| Insurance | $1,986 | ||
| Maintenance | $10,623 | ||
| Net operating income | $21,030 | ||
| Loan payments | $68,692 | ||
| Cash flow | -$47,662 |
| Operator | Line | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Typical price | $1,062,295 | ||
| Down payment (25%) | $265,574 | ||
| Loan | $796,721 | ||
| Rate | 7.78% | ||
| Monthly payment | $5,724 | ||
| Cash in | $297,443 | ||
| Cash-on-cash return | -16.0% | ||
| DSCR | 0.31 | ||
| Break-even rate | none |
Assumptions
Change them in the calculator- Down payment25%
- A common minimum for investment-property and DSCR loans.
- Interest rate7.78%
- Freddie Mac 30-year 7.03% (week of 2026-09-24) + 0.75 point investor premium.
- Loan term30 years
- Fixed, fully amortising.
- Closing costs3% of price
- Added to cash invested.
- Insurance$1,986 a year
- NAIC 2023 average homeowners (HO-3) premium for California, $1,655, x 1.2 for a landlord policy.
- Maintenance1% of price a year
- The 1% rule of thumb; older homes run higher.
- Vacancy5% of rent
- About 18 days empty a year.
- Management8% of collected rent
- A typical full-service fee; zero if you self-manage.
Trends
Five years to August 2026
- Price, 12 months
- +0.6%
- Rent, 12 months
- n/a
- rent series under a year old
- Rent minus price growth
- n/a
- positive means yields are improving
Show the numbers
| Month | Typical value | Rent |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2021 | $995,056 | n/a |
| Aug 2022 | $1,089,127 | n/a |
| Aug 2023 | $1,030,522 | n/a |
| Aug 2024 | $1,076,811 | n/a |
| Aug 2025 | $1,055,968 | n/a |
| Aug 2026 | $1,062,295 | $3,966 |
Rent references
Two sources, never blended
| Source | Studio | 1 bed | 2 bed | 3 bed | 4 bed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HUD Small Area FMR, FY2026 | $2,050 | $2,510 | $2,990 | $3,770 | $3,960 |
| Zillow observed rent, Aug 2026 | $3,966 typical, all home types | ||||
HUD's Fair Market Rent is the 40th percentile gross rent (rent plus utilities) for a standard unit, and it is what Section 8 vouchers pay against. Zillow's index tracks asking rents on listed homes. The two measure different things, so they are shown side by side and never averaged. HUD area: San Francisco, CA HUD Metro FMR Area.
Property tax
- Effective rate
- 0.75%
- ZIP area, ACS
- At the typical price
- $7,957/yr
Median real estate taxes paid divided by median home value, Census ACS 2020 to 2024. Marin County: 0.66%. Actual bills depend on the assessment, exemptions and any non-homestead rate.
Supply
- Permits per 1,000 households
- 1.4
- Marin County, last 12 months
- National percentile
- 21th
- among US counties
147 new housing units permitted in 2025-09 to 2026-08, Census Building Permits Survey. A high figure means more new supply competing for tenants.
Nearby ZIP codes
| ZIP | Distance | Typical price | Rent | Gross yield | Cash flow /mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 94947Novato | 4.0 mi | $1,011,000 | $3,965 | 4.7% | -$3,602 |
| 94949Novato | 5.0 mi | $1,200,000 | $4,313 | 4.3% | -$4,734 |
| 94903San Rafael | 7.0 mi | $1,236,000 | $3,427 | 3.3% | -$5,669 |
| 94954Petaluma | 7.8 mi | $834,000 | $2,928 | 4.2% | -$3,251 |
| 94946Nicasio | 8.4 mi | $2,079,000 | $2,990* | 1.7% | -$11,356 |
| 94960San Anselmo | 8.8 mi | $1,673,000 | $4,083 | 2.9% | -$7,841 |
| 94973Woodacre | 8.9 mi | $1,106,000 | $3,020* | 3.3% | -$5,006 |
| 94963San Geronimo | 10.0 mi | $1,240,000 | $3,630* | 3.5% | -$5,414 |
* HUD Fair Market Rent, 2 bedroom (no Zillow rent index for that ZIP).
Run the numbers on a real listing
The calculator opens with this ZIP's figures. Swap in a listing's price and rent, your rate and your costs.
Open the calculator for 94945Questions
- Is 94945 good for rental property?
- On the typical home here, priced at $1,062,000 and renting for $3,966 a month (Zillow ZORI, Aug 2026), the gross yield is 4.5% and the estimated cap rate is 2.0%. At a 7.78% investor rate with 25% down, estimated cash flow is -$3,972 a month. The median gross yield across the 8,418 ZIP codes with full Zillow data is 5.6%. These are figures for a typical property, not a judgement on any particular one.
- What is the typical rent in 94945?
- Zillow's observed rent index for 94945 was $3,966 a month in August 2026, across all home types. HUD's FY2026 Small Area Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom here is $2,990, the 40th percentile of gross rents and the basis for Section 8 payment standards.
- What is the property tax rate in 94945?
- The effective property tax rate is about 0.75% of value (median taxes paid divided by median home value, Census ACS 2020 to 2024). On the typical $1,062,000 home that is about $7,957 a year. Your bill depends on the assessment and local exemptions.
- What interest rate makes a rental in 94945 break even?
- With the default assumptions, no interest rate brings cash flow to zero: rent does not cover operating costs plus principal on a 30-year loan with 25% down.
- How fast are prices and rents changing in 94945?
- Over the 12 months to August 2026, the typical home value changed +0.6%.
Sources and method
- Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), mid tier, smoothed and seasonally adjusted
Zillow Research. Read: 2026-08.
Typical home value by ZIP, county, metro and state, and the price trend.
- Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), all homes plus multifamily, smoothed
Zillow Research. Read: 2026-08.
Typical market rent by ZIP, county and metro, and the rent trend (tier A pages).
- HUD Small Area Fair Market Rents, FY2026
US Department of Housing and Urban Development. Read: FY2026.
Rent by bedroom count for every ZIP. The rent used on tier B pages, and a reference on all pages. It is the 40th percentile gross rent, so it runs below market.
- American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2020 to 2024 (B25103 median real estate taxes paid, B25077 median home value, B11001 households)
US Census Bureau. Read: 2020 to 2024.
Effective property tax rate (median taxes paid divided by median value) by ZIP code tabulation area, county and state; households for the permits ratio.
- Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, 30-year fixed (FRED series MORTGAGE30US)
Freddie Mac via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Read: 2026-09-24.
The weekly 30-year rate. The site adds a disclosed investor premium to it for the loan payment.
- Building Permits Survey, county monthly files
US Census Bureau. Read: 2025-09 to 2026-08.
New housing units permitted in the last 12 months per 1,000 households, a supply-pressure signal.
- NAIC Homeowners Insurance Report, data for 2023
National Association of Insurance Commissioners. Read: 2023.
Average HO-3 homeowners premium by state, multiplied by 1.2 as a landlord-policy assumption.
Data: Zillow Research (ZHVI, ZORI), HUD, US Census Bureau, Freddie Mac. Every formula is on the methodology page.
Estimates from public data for a typical property. Not investment, tax or legal advice. Your property, financing and costs will differ.