Rental numbers for ZIP 40202 (Louisville, KY)
Negative cash flow at any interest rate with 25% down: the rent does not cover operating costs and principal.
- Gross yield
- 4.3%
- rent x 12 / price
- Est. cap rate
- 1.1%
- NOI / price
- Cash flow
- -$1,506/mo
- at 7.78%, 25% down
- Typical price
- $339,000
- Zillow ZHVI, Aug 2026
- Typical rent
- $1,208/mo
- Zillow ZORI, Aug 2026
The pro forma
Typical home, default assumptions
| Operator | Line | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross rent | $14,496 | ||
| Vacancy | $725 | ||
| Management | $1,102 | ||
| Property tax | $3,582 | ||
| Insurance | $1,830 | ||
| Maintenance | $3,392 | ||
| Net operating income | $3,865 | ||
| Loan payments | $21,935 | ||
| Cash flow | -$18,070 |
| Operator | Line | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Typical price | $339,214 | ||
| Down payment (25%) | $84,804 | ||
| Loan | $254,411 | ||
| Rate | 7.78% | ||
| Monthly payment | $1,828 | ||
| Cash in | $94,980 | ||
| Cash-on-cash return | -19.0% | ||
| DSCR | 0.18 | ||
| Break-even rate | none |
Assumptions
Change them in the calculator- Down payment25%
- A common minimum for investment-property and DSCR loans.
- Interest rate7.78%
- Freddie Mac 30-year 7.03% (week of 2026-09-24) + 0.75 point investor premium.
- Loan term30 years
- Fixed, fully amortising.
- Closing costs3% of price
- Added to cash invested.
- Insurance$1,830 a year
- NAIC 2023 average homeowners (HO-3) premium for Kentucky, $1,525, x 1.2 for a landlord policy.
- Maintenance1% of price a year
- The 1% rule of thumb; older homes run higher.
- Vacancy5% of rent
- About 18 days empty a year.
- Management8% of collected rent
- A typical full-service fee; zero if you self-manage.
Trends
Five years to August 2026
- Price, 12 months
- +6.3%
- Rent, 12 months
- -2.4%
- Rent minus price growth
- -8.7 pts
- positive means yields are improving
Show the numbers
| Month | Typical value | Rent |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2021 | $307,853 | n/a |
| Aug 2022 | $311,102 | $1,205 |
| Aug 2023 | $314,892 | $1,165 |
| Aug 2024 | $317,697 | $1,203 |
| Aug 2025 | $319,025 | $1,238 |
| Aug 2026 | $339,214 | $1,208 |
Rent references
Two sources, never blended
| Source | Studio | 1 bed | 2 bed | 3 bed | 4 bed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HUD Small Area FMR, FY2026 | $1,060 | $1,140 | $1,390 | $1,780 | $2,070 |
| Zillow observed rent, Aug 2026 | $1,208 typical, all home types | ||||
HUD's Fair Market Rent is the 40th percentile gross rent (rent plus utilities) for a standard unit, and it is what Section 8 vouchers pay against. Zillow's index tracks asking rents on listed homes. The two measure different things, so they are shown side by side and never averaged. HUD area: Louisville, KY-IN HUD Metro FMR Area.
Property tax
- Effective rate
- 1.06%
- ZIP area, ACS
- At the typical price
- $3,582/yr
Median real estate taxes paid divided by median home value, Census ACS 2020 to 2024. Jefferson County: 0.86%. Actual bills depend on the assessment, exemptions and any non-homestead rate.
Supply
- Permits per 1,000 households
- 7.0
- Jefferson County, last 12 months
- National percentile
- 59th
- among US counties
2,338 new housing units permitted in 2025-09 to 2026-08, Census Building Permits Survey. A high figure means more new supply competing for tenants.
Nearby ZIP codes
| ZIP | Distance | Typical price | Rent | Gross yield | Cash flow /mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40203Louisville | 0.7 mi | $151,000 | $1,005 | 8.0% | -$304 |
| 40204Louisville | 1.9 mi | $283,000 | $1,262 | 5.3% | -$1,026 |
| 40210Louisville | 2.4 mi | $89,000 | $1,205 | 16.2% | +$288 |
| 40208Louisville | 2.6 mi | $138,000 | $1,137 | 9.9% | -$114 |
| 40217Louisville | 2.6 mi | $239,000 | $1,426 | 7.2% | -$567 |
| 40206Louisville | 2.7 mi | $289,000 | $1,383 | 5.7% | -$990 |
| 40212Louisville | 2.9 mi | $87,000 | $1,056 | 14.6% | +$172 |
| 40211Louisville | 4.1 mi | $94,000 | $1,156 | 14.8% | +$215 |
Run the numbers on a real listing
The calculator opens with this ZIP's figures. Swap in a listing's price and rent, your rate and your costs.
Open the calculator for 40202Questions
- Is 40202 good for rental property?
- On the typical home here, priced at $339,000 and renting for $1,208 a month (Zillow ZORI, Aug 2026), the gross yield is 4.3% and the estimated cap rate is 1.1%. At a 7.78% investor rate with 25% down, estimated cash flow is -$1,506 a month. The median gross yield across the 8,418 ZIP codes with full Zillow data is 5.6%. These are figures for a typical property, not a judgement on any particular one.
- What is the typical rent in 40202?
- Zillow's observed rent index for 40202 was $1,208 a month in August 2026, across all home types. HUD's FY2026 Small Area Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom here is $1,390, the 40th percentile of gross rents and the basis for Section 8 payment standards.
- What is the property tax rate in 40202?
- The effective property tax rate is about 1.06% of value (median taxes paid divided by median home value, Census ACS 2020 to 2024). On the typical $339,000 home that is about $3,582 a year. Your bill depends on the assessment and local exemptions.
- What interest rate makes a rental in 40202 break even?
- With the default assumptions, no interest rate brings cash flow to zero: rent does not cover operating costs plus principal on a 30-year loan with 25% down.
- How fast are prices and rents changing in 40202?
- Over the 12 months to August 2026, the typical home value changed +6.3% and the typical rent changed -2.4%. Prices rising faster than rents pushes yields down.
Sources and method
- Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), mid tier, smoothed and seasonally adjusted
Zillow Research. Read: 2026-08.
Typical home value by ZIP, county, metro and state, and the price trend.
- Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), all homes plus multifamily, smoothed
Zillow Research. Read: 2026-08.
Typical market rent by ZIP, county and metro, and the rent trend (tier A pages).
- HUD Small Area Fair Market Rents, FY2026
US Department of Housing and Urban Development. Read: FY2026.
Rent by bedroom count for every ZIP. The rent used on tier B pages, and a reference on all pages. It is the 40th percentile gross rent, so it runs below market.
- American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2020 to 2024 (B25103 median real estate taxes paid, B25077 median home value, B11001 households)
US Census Bureau. Read: 2020 to 2024.
Effective property tax rate (median taxes paid divided by median value) by ZIP code tabulation area, county and state; households for the permits ratio.
- Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, 30-year fixed (FRED series MORTGAGE30US)
Freddie Mac via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Read: 2026-09-24.
The weekly 30-year rate. The site adds a disclosed investor premium to it for the loan payment.
- Building Permits Survey, county monthly files
US Census Bureau. Read: 2025-09 to 2026-08.
New housing units permitted in the last 12 months per 1,000 households, a supply-pressure signal.
- NAIC Homeowners Insurance Report, data for 2023
National Association of Insurance Commissioners. Read: 2023.
Average HO-3 homeowners premium by state, multiplied by 1.2 as a landlord-policy assumption.
Data: Zillow Research (ZHVI, ZORI), HUD, US Census Bureau, Freddie Mac. Every formula is on the methodology page.
Estimates from public data for a typical property. Not investment, tax or legal advice. Your property, financing and costs will differ.