Rental numbers for ZIP 22645 (Middletown, VA)
Negative cash flow at any interest rate with 25% down: the rent does not cover operating costs and principal.
- Gross yield
- 3.8%
- rent x 12 / price
- Est. cap rate
- 1.4%
- NOI / price
- Cash flow
- -$1,893/mo
- at 7.78%, 25% down
- Typical price
- $451,000
- Zillow ZHVI, Aug 2026
- HUD Fair Market Rent
- $1,420/mo
- HUD Fair Market Rent, 2 bedroom, FY2026
The pro forma
Typical home, default assumptions
| Operator | Line | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross rent | $17,040 | ||
| Vacancy | $852 | ||
| Management | $1,295 | ||
| Property tax | $2,076 | ||
| Insurance | $1,844 | ||
| Maintenance | $4,512 | ||
| Net operating income | $6,461 | ||
| Loan payments | $29,179 | ||
| Cash flow | -$22,718 |
| Operator | Line | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Typical price | $451,236 | ||
| Down payment (25%) | $112,809 | ||
| Loan | $338,427 | ||
| Rate | 7.78% | ||
| Monthly payment | $2,432 | ||
| Cash in | $126,346 | ||
| Cash-on-cash return | -18.0% | ||
| DSCR | 0.22 | ||
| Break-even rate | none |
Assumptions
Change them in the calculator- Down payment25%
- A common minimum for investment-property and DSCR loans.
- Interest rate7.78%
- Freddie Mac 30-year 7.03% (week of 2026-09-24) + 0.75 point investor premium.
- Loan term30 years
- Fixed, fully amortising.
- Closing costs3% of price
- Added to cash invested.
- Insurance$1,844 a year
- NAIC 2023 average homeowners (HO-3) premium for Virginia, $1,537, x 1.2 for a landlord policy.
- Maintenance1% of price a year
- The 1% rule of thumb; older homes run higher.
- Vacancy5% of rent
- About 18 days empty a year.
- Management8% of collected rent
- A typical full-service fee; zero if you self-manage.
Trends
Five years to August 2026
- Price, 12 months
- +2.5%
- Rent, 12 months
- n/a
- no Zillow rent series here
- Rent minus price growth
- n/a
- positive means yields are improving
Show the numbers
| Month | Typical value |
|---|---|
| Aug 2021 | $373,942 |
| Aug 2022 | $409,244 |
| Aug 2023 | $413,281 |
| Aug 2024 | $431,190 |
| Aug 2025 | $440,309 |
| Aug 2026 | $451,236 |
Rent references
Two sources, never blended
| Source | Studio | 1 bed | 2 bed | 3 bed | 4 bed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HUD Small Area FMR, FY2026 | $990 | $1,130 | $1,420 | $1,760 | $2,380 |
| Zillow observed rent, Aug 2026 | not published for this ZIP | ||||
HUD's Fair Market Rent is the 40th percentile gross rent (rent plus utilities) for a standard unit, and it is what Section 8 vouchers pay against. Zillow's index tracks asking rents on listed homes. The two measure different things, so they are shown side by side and never averaged. HUD area: Warren County, VA HUD Metro FMR Area.
Property tax
- Effective rate
- 0.46%
- ZIP area, ACS
- At the typical price
- $2,076/yr
Median real estate taxes paid divided by median home value, Census ACS 2020 to 2024. Frederick County: 0.48%. Actual bills depend on the assessment, exemptions and any non-homestead rate.
Supply
- Permits per 1,000 households
- 18.9
- Frederick County, last 12 months
- National percentile
- 89th
- among US counties
670 new housing units permitted in 2025-09 to 2026-08, Census Building Permits Survey. A high figure means more new supply competing for tenants.
Nearby ZIP codes
| ZIP | Distance | Typical price | Rent | Gross yield | Cash flow /mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22655Stephens City | 4.8 mi | $405,000 | $2,100 | 6.2% | -$996 |
| 22657Strasburg | 5.3 mi | $348,000 | $1,170* | 4.0% | -$1,442 |
| 22641Strasburg | 7.8 mi | $424,000 | $1,180* | 3.3% | -$1,971 |
| 22630Front Royal | 8.1 mi | $405,000 | $1,841 | 5.5% | -$1,242 |
| 22602Winchester | 8.7 mi | $419,000 | $2,012 | 5.8% | -$1,171 |
| 22663White Post | 9.0 mi | $476,000 | $1,510* | 3.8% | -$1,990 |
| 22660Toms Brook | 9.9 mi | $356,000 | $980* | 3.3% | -$1,677 |
| 22654Star Tannery | 10.7 mi | $434,000 | $1,420* | 3.9% | -$1,774 |
* HUD Fair Market Rent, 2 bedroom (no Zillow rent index for that ZIP).
Run the numbers on a real listing
The calculator opens with this ZIP's figures. Swap in a listing's price and rent, your rate and your costs.
Open the calculator for 22645Questions
- Is 22645 good for rental property?
- On the typical home here, priced at $451,000 and renting for $1,420 a month (HUD Fair Market Rent, 2 bedroom, FY2026), the gross yield is 3.8% and the estimated cap rate is 1.4%. At a 7.78% investor rate with 25% down, estimated cash flow is -$1,893 a month. The median gross yield across the 8,418 ZIP codes with full Zillow data is 5.6%. These are figures for a typical property, not a judgement on any particular one.
- What is the typical rent in 22645?
- Zillow does not publish a rent index for 22645. HUD's FY2026 Small Area Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom here is $1,420, the 40th percentile of gross rents and the basis for Section 8 payment standards.
- What is the property tax rate in 22645?
- The effective property tax rate is about 0.46% of value (median taxes paid divided by median home value, Census ACS 2020 to 2024). On the typical $451,000 home that is about $2,076 a year. Your bill depends on the assessment and local exemptions.
- What interest rate makes a rental in 22645 break even?
- With the default assumptions, no interest rate brings cash flow to zero: rent does not cover operating costs plus principal on a 30-year loan with 25% down.
- How fast are prices and rents changing in 22645?
- Over the 12 months to August 2026, the typical home value changed +2.5%.
Sources and method
- Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), mid tier, smoothed and seasonally adjusted
Zillow Research. Read: 2026-08.
Typical home value by ZIP, county, metro and state, and the price trend.
- HUD Small Area Fair Market Rents, FY2026
US Department of Housing and Urban Development. Read: FY2026.
Rent by bedroom count for every ZIP. The rent used on tier B pages, and a reference on all pages. It is the 40th percentile gross rent, so it runs below market.
- American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2020 to 2024 (B25103 median real estate taxes paid, B25077 median home value, B11001 households)
US Census Bureau. Read: 2020 to 2024.
Effective property tax rate (median taxes paid divided by median value) by ZIP code tabulation area, county and state; households for the permits ratio.
- Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, 30-year fixed (FRED series MORTGAGE30US)
Freddie Mac via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Read: 2026-09-24.
The weekly 30-year rate. The site adds a disclosed investor premium to it for the loan payment.
- Building Permits Survey, county monthly files
US Census Bureau. Read: 2025-09 to 2026-08.
New housing units permitted in the last 12 months per 1,000 households, a supply-pressure signal.
- NAIC Homeowners Insurance Report, data for 2023
National Association of Insurance Commissioners. Read: 2023.
Average HO-3 homeowners premium by state, multiplied by 1.2 as a landlord-policy assumption.
Data: Zillow Research (ZHVI, ZORI), HUD, US Census Bureau, Freddie Mac. Every formula is on the methodology page.
Estimates from public data for a typical property. Not investment, tax or legal advice. Your property, financing and costs will differ.