Rental numbers for ZIP 12409 (Bearsville, NY)
Negative cash flow at any interest rate with 25% down: the rent does not cover operating costs and principal.
- Gross yield
- 3.2%
- rent x 12 / price
- Est. cap rate
- 0.3%
- NOI / price
- Cash flow
- -$3,842/mo
- at 7.78%, 25% down
- Typical price
- $752,000
- Zillow ZHVI, Aug 2026
- HUD Fair Market Rent
- $2,030/mo
- HUD Fair Market Rent, 2 bedroom, FY2026
The pro forma
Typical home, default assumptions
| Operator | Line | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross rent | $24,360 | ||
| Vacancy | $1,218 | ||
| Management | $1,851 | ||
| Property tax | $9,123 | ||
| Insurance | $2,161 | ||
| Maintenance | $7,515 | ||
| Net operating income | $2,491 | ||
| Loan payments | $48,595 | ||
| Cash flow | -$46,104 |
| Operator | Line | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Typical price | $751,503 | ||
| Down payment (25%) | $187,876 | ||
| Loan | $563,627 | ||
| Rate | 7.78% | ||
| Monthly payment | $4,050 | ||
| Cash in | $210,421 | ||
| Cash-on-cash return | -21.9% | ||
| DSCR | 0.05 | ||
| Break-even rate | none |
Assumptions
Change them in the calculator- Down payment25%
- A common minimum for investment-property and DSCR loans.
- Interest rate7.78%
- Freddie Mac 30-year 7.03% (week of 2026-09-24) + 0.75 point investor premium.
- Loan term30 years
- Fixed, fully amortising.
- Closing costs3% of price
- Added to cash invested.
- Insurance$2,161 a year
- NAIC 2023 average homeowners (HO-3) premium for New York, $1,801, x 1.2 for a landlord policy.
- Maintenance1% of price a year
- The 1% rule of thumb; older homes run higher.
- Vacancy5% of rent
- About 18 days empty a year.
- Management8% of collected rent
- A typical full-service fee; zero if you self-manage.
Trends
Five years to August 2026
- Price, 12 months
- +0.6%
- Rent, 12 months
- n/a
- no Zillow rent series here
- Rent minus price growth
- n/a
- positive means yields are improving
Show the numbers
| Month | Typical value |
|---|---|
| Aug 2021 | $622,086 |
| Aug 2022 | $720,791 |
| Aug 2023 | $733,320 |
| Aug 2024 | $782,442 |
| Aug 2025 | $747,242 |
| Aug 2026 | $751,503 |
Rent references
Two sources, never blended
| Source | Studio | 1 bed | 2 bed | 3 bed | 4 bed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HUD Small Area FMR, FY2026 | $1,460 | $1,550 | $2,030 | $2,510 | $2,690 |
| Zillow observed rent, Aug 2026 | not published for this ZIP | ||||
HUD's Fair Market Rent is the 40th percentile gross rent (rent plus utilities) for a standard unit, and it is what Section 8 vouchers pay against. Zillow's index tracks asking rents on listed homes. The two measure different things, so they are shown side by side and never averaged. HUD area: Kingston, NY MSA.
Property tax
- Effective rate
- 1.21%
- ZIP area, ACS
- At the typical price
- $9,123/yr
Median real estate taxes paid divided by median home value, Census ACS 2020 to 2024. Ulster County: 1.77%. Actual bills depend on the assessment, exemptions and any non-homestead rate.
Supply
- Permits per 1,000 households
- 8.3
- Ulster County, last 12 months
- National percentile
- 65th
- among US counties
616 new housing units permitted in 2025-09 to 2026-08, Census Building Permits Survey. A high figure means more new supply competing for tenants.
Nearby ZIP codes
| ZIP | Distance | Typical price | Rent | Gross yield | Cash flow /mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12448Lake Hill | 2.5 mi | $616,000 | $1,820* | 3.5% | -$2,892 |
| 12498Woodstock | 2.9 mi | $658,000 | $2,849 | 5.2% | -$2,418 |
| 12433Glenford | 3.5 mi | $560,000 | $2,140* | 4.6% | -$2,173 |
| 12457Mount Tremper | 4.3 mi | $619,000 | $1,960* | 3.8% | -$3,050 |
| 12495Willow | 4.5 mi | $651,000 | $1,820* | 3.4% | -$3,550 |
| 12481Shokan | 6.3 mi | $456,000 | $1,820* | 4.8% | -$1,778 |
| 12491West Hurley | 6.4 mi | $482,000 | $1,890* | 4.7% | -$1,902 |
| 12412Boiceville | 6.5 mi | $439,000 | $1,870* | 5.1% | -$1,539 |
* HUD Fair Market Rent, 2 bedroom (no Zillow rent index for that ZIP).
Run the numbers on a real listing
The calculator opens with this ZIP's figures. Swap in a listing's price and rent, your rate and your costs.
Open the calculator for 12409Questions
- Is 12409 good for rental property?
- On the typical home here, priced at $752,000 and renting for $2,030 a month (HUD Fair Market Rent, 2 bedroom, FY2026), the gross yield is 3.2% and the estimated cap rate is 0.3%. At a 7.78% investor rate with 25% down, estimated cash flow is -$3,842 a month. The median gross yield across the 8,418 ZIP codes with full Zillow data is 5.6%. These are figures for a typical property, not a judgement on any particular one.
- What is the typical rent in 12409?
- Zillow does not publish a rent index for 12409. HUD's FY2026 Small Area Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom here is $2,030, the 40th percentile of gross rents and the basis for Section 8 payment standards.
- What is the property tax rate in 12409?
- The effective property tax rate is about 1.21% of value (median taxes paid divided by median home value, Census ACS 2020 to 2024). On the typical $752,000 home that is about $9,123 a year. Your bill depends on the assessment and local exemptions.
- What interest rate makes a rental in 12409 break even?
- With the default assumptions, no interest rate brings cash flow to zero: rent does not cover operating costs plus principal on a 30-year loan with 25% down.
- How fast are prices and rents changing in 12409?
- Over the 12 months to August 2026, the typical home value changed +0.6%.
Sources and method
- Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), mid tier, smoothed and seasonally adjusted
Zillow Research. Read: 2026-08.
Typical home value by ZIP, county, metro and state, and the price trend.
- HUD Small Area Fair Market Rents, FY2026
US Department of Housing and Urban Development. Read: FY2026.
Rent by bedroom count for every ZIP. The rent used on tier B pages, and a reference on all pages. It is the 40th percentile gross rent, so it runs below market.
- American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2020 to 2024 (B25103 median real estate taxes paid, B25077 median home value, B11001 households)
US Census Bureau. Read: 2020 to 2024.
Effective property tax rate (median taxes paid divided by median value) by ZIP code tabulation area, county and state; households for the permits ratio.
- Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, 30-year fixed (FRED series MORTGAGE30US)
Freddie Mac via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Read: 2026-09-24.
The weekly 30-year rate. The site adds a disclosed investor premium to it for the loan payment.
- Building Permits Survey, county monthly files
US Census Bureau. Read: 2025-09 to 2026-08.
New housing units permitted in the last 12 months per 1,000 households, a supply-pressure signal.
- NAIC Homeowners Insurance Report, data for 2023
National Association of Insurance Commissioners. Read: 2023.
Average HO-3 homeowners premium by state, multiplied by 1.2 as a landlord-policy assumption.
Data: Zillow Research (ZHVI, ZORI), HUD, US Census Bureau, Freddie Mac. Every formula is on the methodology page.
Estimates from public data for a typical property. Not investment, tax or legal advice. Your property, financing and costs will differ.