Rental numbers for ZIP 97138 (Arch Cape, OR)
Negative cash flow at any interest rate with 25% down: the rent does not cover operating costs and principal.
- Gross yield
- 3.6%
- rent x 12 / price
- Est. cap rate
- 1.2%
- NOI / price
- Cash flow
- -$2,236/mo
- at 7.78%, 25% down
- Typical price
- $505,000
- Zillow ZHVI, Aug 2026
- Typical rent
- $1,500/mo
- Zillow ZORI, Aug 2026
The pro forma
Typical home, default assumptions
| Operator | Line | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross rent | $18,000 | ||
| Vacancy | $900 | ||
| Management | $1,368 | ||
| Property tax | $3,623 | ||
| Insurance | $1,204 | ||
| Maintenance | $5,054 | ||
| Net operating income | $5,851 | ||
| Loan payments | $32,678 | ||
| Cash flow | -$26,827 |
| Operator | Line | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Typical price | $505,353 | ||
| Down payment (25%) | $126,338 | ||
| Loan | $379,015 | ||
| Rate | 7.78% | ||
| Monthly payment | $2,723 | ||
| Cash in | $141,499 | ||
| Cash-on-cash return | -19.0% | ||
| DSCR | 0.18 | ||
| Break-even rate | none |
Assumptions
Change them in the calculator- Down payment25%
- A common minimum for investment-property and DSCR loans.
- Interest rate7.78%
- Freddie Mac 30-year 7.03% (week of 2026-09-24) + 0.75 point investor premium.
- Loan term30 years
- Fixed, fully amortising.
- Closing costs3% of price
- Added to cash invested.
- Insurance$1,204 a year
- NAIC 2023 average homeowners (HO-3) premium for Oregon, $1,003, x 1.2 for a landlord policy.
- Maintenance1% of price a year
- The 1% rule of thumb; older homes run higher.
- Vacancy5% of rent
- About 18 days empty a year.
- Management8% of collected rent
- A typical full-service fee; zero if you self-manage.
Trends
Five years to August 2026
- Price, 12 months
- -0.4%
- Rent, 12 months
- n/a
- rent series under a year old
- Rent minus price growth
- n/a
- positive means yields are improving
Show the numbers
| Month | Typical value | Rent |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2021 | $444,968 | n/a |
| Aug 2022 | $525,718 | n/a |
| Aug 2023 | $525,166 | n/a |
| Aug 2024 | $515,932 | n/a |
| Aug 2025 | $507,360 | n/a |
| Aug 2026 | $505,353 | $1,500 |
Rent references
Two sources, never blended
| Source | Studio | 1 bed | 2 bed | 3 bed | 4 bed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HUD Small Area FMR, FY2026 | $950 | $990 | $1,300 | $1,780 | $2,180 |
| Zillow observed rent, Aug 2026 | $1,500 typical, all home types | ||||
HUD's Fair Market Rent is the 40th percentile gross rent (rent plus utilities) for a standard unit, and it is what Section 8 vouchers pay against. Zillow's index tracks asking rents on listed homes. The two measure different things, so they are shown side by side and never averaged. HUD area: Clatsop County, OR.
Property tax
- Effective rate
- 0.72%
- ZIP area, ACS
- At the typical price
- $3,623/yr
Median real estate taxes paid divided by median home value, Census ACS 2020 to 2024. Clatsop County: 0.69%. Actual bills depend on the assessment, exemptions and any non-homestead rate.
Supply
- Permits per 1,000 households
- 8.3
- Clatsop County, last 12 months
- National percentile
- 65th
- among US counties
150 new housing units permitted in 2025-09 to 2026-08, Census Building Permits Survey. A high figure means more new supply competing for tenants.
Nearby ZIP codes
| ZIP | Distance | Typical price | Rent | Gross yield | Cash flow /mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 97110Cannon Beach | 11.7 mi | $926,000 | $1,430* | 1.8% | -$5,081 |
| 97102Arch Cape | 13.8 mi | $949,000 | $1,610* | 2.0% | -$5,225 |
| 97131Nehalem | 14.5 mi | $569,000 | $1,630* | 3.4% | -$2,468 |
| 97103Astoria | 15.7 mi | $482,000 | $1,589 | 4.0% | -$2,008 |
| 97147Wheeler | 17.4 mi | $462,000 | $1,130* | 2.9% | -$2,246 |
| 97130Manzanita | 17.5 mi | $814,000 | $1,750* | 2.6% | -$3,981 |
| 97146Warrenton | 18.0 mi | $499,000 | $1,703 | 4.1% | -$1,964 |
| 97136Rockaway Beach | 21.6 mi | $463,000 | $1,380* | 3.6% | -$1,988 |
* HUD Fair Market Rent, 2 bedroom (no Zillow rent index for that ZIP).
Run the numbers on a real listing
The calculator opens with this ZIP's figures. Swap in a listing's price and rent, your rate and your costs.
Open the calculator for 97138Questions
- Is 97138 good for rental property?
- On the typical home here, priced at $505,000 and renting for $1,500 a month (Zillow ZORI, Aug 2026), the gross yield is 3.6% and the estimated cap rate is 1.2%. At a 7.78% investor rate with 25% down, estimated cash flow is -$2,236 a month. The median gross yield across the 8,418 ZIP codes with full Zillow data is 5.6%. These are figures for a typical property, not a judgement on any particular one.
- What is the typical rent in 97138?
- Zillow's observed rent index for 97138 was $1,500 a month in August 2026, across all home types. HUD's FY2026 Small Area Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom here is $1,300, the 40th percentile of gross rents and the basis for Section 8 payment standards.
- What is the property tax rate in 97138?
- The effective property tax rate is about 0.72% of value (median taxes paid divided by median home value, Census ACS 2020 to 2024). On the typical $505,000 home that is about $3,623 a year. Your bill depends on the assessment and local exemptions.
- What interest rate makes a rental in 97138 break even?
- With the default assumptions, no interest rate brings cash flow to zero: rent does not cover operating costs plus principal on a 30-year loan with 25% down.
- How fast are prices and rents changing in 97138?
- Over the 12 months to August 2026, the typical home value changed -0.4%.
Sources and method
- Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), mid tier, smoothed and seasonally adjusted
Zillow Research. Read: 2026-08.
Typical home value by ZIP, county, metro and state, and the price trend.
- Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), all homes plus multifamily, smoothed
Zillow Research. Read: 2026-08.
Typical market rent by ZIP, county and metro, and the rent trend (tier A pages).
- HUD Small Area Fair Market Rents, FY2026
US Department of Housing and Urban Development. Read: FY2026.
Rent by bedroom count for every ZIP. The rent used on tier B pages, and a reference on all pages. It is the 40th percentile gross rent, so it runs below market.
- American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2020 to 2024 (B25103 median real estate taxes paid, B25077 median home value, B11001 households)
US Census Bureau. Read: 2020 to 2024.
Effective property tax rate (median taxes paid divided by median value) by ZIP code tabulation area, county and state; households for the permits ratio.
- Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, 30-year fixed (FRED series MORTGAGE30US)
Freddie Mac via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Read: 2026-09-24.
The weekly 30-year rate. The site adds a disclosed investor premium to it for the loan payment.
- Building Permits Survey, county monthly files
US Census Bureau. Read: 2025-09 to 2026-08.
New housing units permitted in the last 12 months per 1,000 households, a supply-pressure signal.
- NAIC Homeowners Insurance Report, data for 2023
National Association of Insurance Commissioners. Read: 2023.
Average HO-3 homeowners premium by state, multiplied by 1.2 as a landlord-policy assumption.
Data: Zillow Research (ZHVI, ZORI), HUD, US Census Bureau, Freddie Mac. Every formula is on the methodology page.
Estimates from public data for a typical property. Not investment, tax or legal advice. Your property, financing and costs will differ.