Rental numbers for ZIP 85209 (Mesa, AZ)
Negative cash flow at today's 7.78% investor rate with 25% down; the typical home breaks even at about 0.5%.
- Gross yield
- 5.1%
- rent x 12 / price
- Est. cap rate
- 2.7%
- NOI / price
- Cash flow
- -$1,379/mo
- at 7.78%, 25% down
- Typical price
- $440,000
- Zillow ZHVI, Aug 2026
- Typical rent
- $1,862/mo
- Zillow ZORI, Aug 2026
The pro forma
Typical home, default assumptions
| Operator | Line | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross rent | $22,344 | ||
| Vacancy | $1,117 | ||
| Management | $1,698 | ||
| Property tax | $1,812 | ||
| Insurance | $1,433 | ||
| Maintenance | $4,398 | ||
| Net operating income | $11,886 | ||
| Loan payments | $28,439 | ||
| Cash flow | -$16,553 |
| Operator | Line | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Typical price | $439,796 | ||
| Down payment (25%) | $109,949 | ||
| Loan | $329,847 | ||
| Rate | 7.78% | ||
| Monthly payment | $2,370 | ||
| Cash in | $123,143 | ||
| Cash-on-cash return | -13.4% | ||
| DSCR | 0.42 | ||
| Break-even rate | 0.52% |
Assumptions
Change them in the calculator- Down payment25%
- A common minimum for investment-property and DSCR loans.
- Interest rate7.78%
- Freddie Mac 30-year 7.03% (week of 2026-09-24) + 0.75 point investor premium.
- Loan term30 years
- Fixed, fully amortising.
- Closing costs3% of price
- Added to cash invested.
- Insurance$1,433 a year
- NAIC 2023 average homeowners (HO-3) premium for Arizona, $1,194, x 1.2 for a landlord policy.
- Maintenance1% of price a year
- The 1% rule of thumb; older homes run higher.
- Vacancy5% of rent
- About 18 days empty a year.
- Management8% of collected rent
- A typical full-service fee; zero if you self-manage.
Trends
Five years to August 2026
- Price, 12 months
- -0.8%
- Rent, 12 months
- -0.6%
- Rent minus price growth
- +0.2 pts
- positive means yields are improving
Show the numbers
| Month | Typical value | Rent |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2021 | $402,419 | $1,766 |
| Aug 2022 | $486,065 | $1,903 |
| Aug 2023 | $450,501 | $1,935 |
| Aug 2024 | $456,444 | $1,908 |
| Aug 2025 | $443,364 | $1,874 |
| Aug 2026 | $439,796 | $1,862 |
Rent references
Two sources, never blended
| Source | Studio | 1 bed | 2 bed | 3 bed | 4 bed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HUD Small Area FMR, FY2026 | $1,640 | $1,780 | $2,070 | $2,760 | $3,060 |
| Zillow observed rent, Aug 2026 | $1,862 typical, all home types | ||||
HUD's Fair Market Rent is the 40th percentile gross rent (rent plus utilities) for a standard unit, and it is what Section 8 vouchers pay against. Zillow's index tracks asking rents on listed homes. The two measure different things, so they are shown side by side and never averaged. HUD area: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ MSA.
Property tax
- Effective rate
- 0.41%
- ZIP area, ACS
- At the typical price
- $1,812/yr
Median real estate taxes paid divided by median home value, Census ACS 2020 to 2024. Maricopa County: 0.44%. Actual bills depend on the assessment, exemptions and any non-homestead rate.
Supply
- Permits per 1,000 households
- 16.9
- Maricopa County, last 12 months
- National percentile
- 86th
- among US counties
29,326 new housing units permitted in 2025-09 to 2026-08, Census Building Permits Survey. A high figure means more new supply competing for tenants.
Nearby ZIP codes
| ZIP | Distance | Typical price | Rent | Gross yield | Cash flow /mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85208Mesa | 1.7 mi | $373,000 | $1,918 | 6.2% | -$883 |
| 85212Mesa | 4.0 mi | $552,000 | $2,156 | 4.7% | -$1,874 |
| 85120Apache Junction | 4.2 mi | $352,000 | $1,746 | 5.9% | -$914 |
| 85206Mesa | 4.9 mi | $381,000 | $1,679 | 5.3% | -$1,156 |
| 85207Mesa | 5.2 mi | $548,000 | $2,169 | 4.8% | -$1,838 |
| 85205Mesa | 5.9 mi | $401,000 | $1,775 | 5.3% | -$1,193 |
| 85234Gilbert | 6.1 mi | $552,000 | $1,796 | 3.9% | -$2,179 |
| 85119Apache Junction | 7.3 mi | $389,000 | $1,758 | 5.4% | -$1,149 |
Run the numbers on a real listing
The calculator opens with this ZIP's figures. Swap in a listing's price and rent, your rate and your costs.
Open the calculator for 85209Questions
- Is 85209 good for rental property?
- On the typical home here, priced at $440,000 and renting for $1,862 a month (Zillow ZORI, Aug 2026), the gross yield is 5.1% and the estimated cap rate is 2.7%. At a 7.78% investor rate with 25% down, estimated cash flow is -$1,379 a month. The median gross yield across the 8,418 ZIP codes with full Zillow data is 5.6%. These are figures for a typical property, not a judgement on any particular one.
- What is the typical rent in 85209?
- Zillow's observed rent index for 85209 was $1,862 a month in August 2026, across all home types. HUD's FY2026 Small Area Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom here is $2,070, the 40th percentile of gross rents and the basis for Section 8 payment standards.
- What is the property tax rate in 85209?
- The effective property tax rate is about 0.41% of value (median taxes paid divided by median home value, Census ACS 2020 to 2024). On the typical $440,000 home that is about $1,812 a year. Your bill depends on the assessment and local exemptions.
- What interest rate makes a rental in 85209 break even?
- About 0.53%. Below that rate, the typical home here cash-flows with 25% down and the default costs; above it, it does not. Today's investor rate used here is 7.78%.
- How fast are prices and rents changing in 85209?
- Over the 12 months to August 2026, the typical home value changed -0.8% and the typical rent changed -0.6%. Rents rising faster than prices pushes yields up.
Sources and method
- Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), mid tier, smoothed and seasonally adjusted
Zillow Research. Read: 2026-08.
Typical home value by ZIP, county, metro and state, and the price trend.
- Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), all homes plus multifamily, smoothed
Zillow Research. Read: 2026-08.
Typical market rent by ZIP, county and metro, and the rent trend (tier A pages).
- HUD Small Area Fair Market Rents, FY2026
US Department of Housing and Urban Development. Read: FY2026.
Rent by bedroom count for every ZIP. The rent used on tier B pages, and a reference on all pages. It is the 40th percentile gross rent, so it runs below market.
- American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2020 to 2024 (B25103 median real estate taxes paid, B25077 median home value, B11001 households)
US Census Bureau. Read: 2020 to 2024.
Effective property tax rate (median taxes paid divided by median value) by ZIP code tabulation area, county and state; households for the permits ratio.
- Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, 30-year fixed (FRED series MORTGAGE30US)
Freddie Mac via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Read: 2026-09-24.
The weekly 30-year rate. The site adds a disclosed investor premium to it for the loan payment.
- Building Permits Survey, county monthly files
US Census Bureau. Read: 2025-09 to 2026-08.
New housing units permitted in the last 12 months per 1,000 households, a supply-pressure signal.
- NAIC Homeowners Insurance Report, data for 2023
National Association of Insurance Commissioners. Read: 2023.
Average HO-3 homeowners premium by state, multiplied by 1.2 as a landlord-policy assumption.
Data: Zillow Research (ZHVI, ZORI), HUD, US Census Bureau, Freddie Mac. Every formula is on the methodology page.
Estimates from public data for a typical property. Not investment, tax or legal advice. Your property, financing and costs will differ.