Rental numbers for ZIP 40831 (Harlan, KY)
Negative cash flow at today's 7.78% investor rate with 25% down; the typical home breaks even at about 5.8%.
- Gross yield
- 10.3%
- rent x 12 / price
- Est. cap rate
- 5.3%
- NOI / price
- Cash flow
- -$101/mo
- at 7.78%, 25% down
- Typical price
- $101,000
- Zillow ZHVI, Aug 2026
- HUD Fair Market Rent
- $870/mo
- HUD Fair Market Rent, 2 bedroom, FY2026
The pro forma
Typical home, default assumptions
| Operator | Line | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross rent | $10,440 | ||
| Vacancy | $522 | ||
| Management | $793 | ||
| Property tax | $952 | ||
| Insurance | $1,830 | ||
| Maintenance | $1,011 | ||
| Net operating income | $5,331 | ||
| Loan payments | $6,538 | ||
| Cash flow | -$1,207 |
| Operator | Line | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Typical price | $101,111 | ||
| Down payment (25%) | $25,278 | ||
| Loan | $75,833 | ||
| Rate | 7.78% | ||
| Monthly payment | $545 | ||
| Cash in | $28,311 | ||
| Cash-on-cash return | -4.3% | ||
| DSCR | 0.82 | ||
| Break-even rate | 5.79% |
Assumptions
Change them in the calculator- Down payment25%
- A common minimum for investment-property and DSCR loans.
- Interest rate7.78%
- Freddie Mac 30-year 7.03% (week of 2026-09-24) + 0.75 point investor premium.
- Loan term30 years
- Fixed, fully amortising.
- Closing costs3% of price
- Added to cash invested.
- Insurance$1,830 a year
- NAIC 2023 average homeowners (HO-3) premium for Kentucky, $1,525, x 1.2 for a landlord policy.
- Maintenance1% of price a year
- The 1% rule of thumb; older homes run higher.
- Vacancy5% of rent
- About 18 days empty a year.
- Management8% of collected rent
- A typical full-service fee; zero if you self-manage.
Trends
Five years to August 2026
- Price, 12 months
- -8.2%
- Rent, 12 months
- n/a
- no Zillow rent series here
- Rent minus price growth
- n/a
- positive means yields are improving
Show the numbers
| Month | Typical value |
|---|---|
| Aug 2021 | $72,010 |
| Aug 2022 | $82,186 |
| Aug 2023 | $89,990 |
| Aug 2024 | $98,293 |
| Aug 2025 | $110,100 |
| Aug 2026 | $101,111 |
Rent references
Two sources, never blended
| Source | Studio | 1 bed | 2 bed | 3 bed | 4 bed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HUD Small Area FMR, FY2026 | $690 | $700 | $870 | $1,140 | $1,150 |
| Zillow observed rent, Aug 2026 | not published for this ZIP | ||||
HUD's Fair Market Rent is the 40th percentile gross rent (rent plus utilities) for a standard unit, and it is what Section 8 vouchers pay against. Zillow's index tracks asking rents on listed homes. The two measure different things, so they are shown side by side and never averaged. HUD area: Harlan County, KY.
Property tax
- Effective rate
- 0.94%
- ZIP area, ACS
- At the typical price
- $952/yr
Median real estate taxes paid divided by median home value, Census ACS 2020 to 2024. Harlan County: 0.99%. Actual bills depend on the assessment, exemptions and any non-homestead rate.
Supply
- Permits per 1,000 households
- 0.0
- Harlan County, last 12 months
- National percentile
- 0th
- among US counties
0 new housing units permitted in 2025-09 to 2026-08, Census Building Permits Survey. A high figure means more new supply competing for tenants.
Nearby ZIP codes
| ZIP | Distance | Typical price | Rent | Gross yield | Cash flow /mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40873Wallins Creek | 5.3 mi | $78,000 | $1,020* | 15.8% | +$206 |
| 40815Cawood | 5.7 mi | $67,000 | $870* | 15.7% | +$122 |
| 40863Pathfork | 6.1 mi | $66,000 | $910* | 16.6% | +$186 |
| 40854Loyall | 6.2 mi | $67,000 | $870* | 15.6% | +$123 |
| 40819Wallins Creek | 6.9 mi | $94,000 | $870* | 11.2% | -$51 |
| 24281Rose Hill | 8.5 mi | $122,000 | $910* | 9.0% | -$173 |
| 40806Baxter | 9.2 mi | $103,000 | $920* | 10.8% | -$65 |
| 40820Cranks | 9.8 mi | $90,000 | $950* | 12.6% | +$40 |
* HUD Fair Market Rent, 2 bedroom (no Zillow rent index for that ZIP).
Run the numbers on a real listing
The calculator opens with this ZIP's figures. Swap in a listing's price and rent, your rate and your costs.
Open the calculator for 40831Questions
- Is 40831 good for rental property?
- On the typical home here, priced at $101,000 and renting for $870 a month (HUD Fair Market Rent, 2 bedroom, FY2026), the gross yield is 10.3% and the estimated cap rate is 5.3%. At a 7.78% investor rate with 25% down, estimated cash flow is -$101 a month. The median gross yield across the 8,418 ZIP codes with full Zillow data is 5.6%. These are figures for a typical property, not a judgement on any particular one.
- What is the typical rent in 40831?
- Zillow does not publish a rent index for 40831. HUD's FY2026 Small Area Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom here is $870, the 40th percentile of gross rents and the basis for Section 8 payment standards.
- What is the property tax rate in 40831?
- The effective property tax rate is about 0.94% of value (median taxes paid divided by median home value, Census ACS 2020 to 2024). On the typical $101,000 home that is about $952 a year. Your bill depends on the assessment and local exemptions.
- What interest rate makes a rental in 40831 break even?
- About 5.79%. Below that rate, the typical home here cash-flows with 25% down and the default costs; above it, it does not. Today's investor rate used here is 7.78%.
- How fast are prices and rents changing in 40831?
- Over the 12 months to August 2026, the typical home value changed -8.2%.
Sources and method
- Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), mid tier, smoothed and seasonally adjusted
Zillow Research. Read: 2026-08.
Typical home value by ZIP, county, metro and state, and the price trend.
- HUD Small Area Fair Market Rents, FY2026
US Department of Housing and Urban Development. Read: FY2026.
Rent by bedroom count for every ZIP. The rent used on tier B pages, and a reference on all pages. It is the 40th percentile gross rent, so it runs below market.
- American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2020 to 2024 (B25103 median real estate taxes paid, B25077 median home value, B11001 households)
US Census Bureau. Read: 2020 to 2024.
Effective property tax rate (median taxes paid divided by median value) by ZIP code tabulation area, county and state; households for the permits ratio.
- Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, 30-year fixed (FRED series MORTGAGE30US)
Freddie Mac via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Read: 2026-09-24.
The weekly 30-year rate. The site adds a disclosed investor premium to it for the loan payment.
- Building Permits Survey, county monthly files
US Census Bureau. Read: 2025-09 to 2026-08.
New housing units permitted in the last 12 months per 1,000 households, a supply-pressure signal.
- NAIC Homeowners Insurance Report, data for 2023
National Association of Insurance Commissioners. Read: 2023.
Average HO-3 homeowners premium by state, multiplied by 1.2 as a landlord-policy assumption.
Data: Zillow Research (ZHVI, ZORI), HUD, US Census Bureau, Freddie Mac. Every formula is on the methodology page.
Estimates from public data for a typical property. Not investment, tax or legal advice. Your property, financing and costs will differ.