Rental numbers for ZIP 38637 (Horn Lake, MS)
Negative cash flow at today's 7.78% investor rate with 25% down; the typical home breaks even at about 5.0%.
- Gross yield
- 8.9%
- rent x 12 / price
- Est. cap rate
- 4.9%
- NOI / price
- Cash flow
- -$272/mo
- at 7.78%, 25% down
- Typical price
- $202,000
- Zillow ZHVI, Aug 2026
- Typical rent
- $1,501/mo
- Zillow ZORI, Aug 2026
The pro forma
Typical home, default assumptions
| Operator | Line | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross rent | $18,012 | ||
| Vacancy | $901 | ||
| Management | $1,369 | ||
| Property tax | $1,466 | ||
| Insurance | $2,435 | ||
| Maintenance | $2,022 | ||
| Net operating income | $9,819 | ||
| Loan payments | $13,076 | ||
| Cash flow | -$3,257 |
| Operator | Line | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Typical price | $202,219 | ||
| Down payment (25%) | $50,555 | ||
| Loan | $151,664 | ||
| Rate | 7.78% | ||
| Monthly payment | $1,090 | ||
| Cash in | $56,621 | ||
| Cash-on-cash return | -5.8% | ||
| DSCR | 0.75 | ||
| Break-even rate | 5.04% |
Assumptions
Change them in the calculator- Down payment25%
- A common minimum for investment-property and DSCR loans.
- Interest rate7.78%
- Freddie Mac 30-year 7.03% (week of 2026-09-24) + 0.75 point investor premium.
- Loan term30 years
- Fixed, fully amortising.
- Closing costs3% of price
- Added to cash invested.
- Insurance$2,435 a year
- NAIC 2023 average homeowners (HO-3) premium for Mississippi, $2,029, x 1.2 for a landlord policy.
- Maintenance1% of price a year
- The 1% rule of thumb; older homes run higher.
- Vacancy5% of rent
- About 18 days empty a year.
- Management8% of collected rent
- A typical full-service fee; zero if you self-manage.
Trends
Five years to August 2026
- Price, 12 months
- +0.8%
- Rent, 12 months
- -1.6%
- Rent minus price growth
- -2.4 pts
- positive means yields are improving
Show the numbers
| Month | Typical value | Rent |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2021 | $166,026 | $1,258 |
| Aug 2022 | $195,330 | $1,362 |
| Aug 2023 | $199,908 | $1,435 |
| Aug 2024 | $203,942 | $1,463 |
| Aug 2025 | $200,710 | $1,525 |
| Aug 2026 | $202,219 | $1,501 |
Rent references
Two sources, never blended
| Source | Studio | 1 bed | 2 bed | 3 bed | 4 bed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HUD Small Area FMR, FY2026 | $1,170 | $1,270 | $1,400 | $1,850 | $2,150 |
| Zillow observed rent, Aug 2026 | $1,501 typical, all home types | ||||
HUD's Fair Market Rent is the 40th percentile gross rent (rent plus utilities) for a standard unit, and it is what Section 8 vouchers pay against. Zillow's index tracks asking rents on listed homes. The two measure different things, so they are shown side by side and never averaged. HUD area: Memphis, TN-MS-AR HUD Metro FMR Area.
Property tax
- Effective rate
- 0.73%
- ZIP area, ACS
- At the typical price
- $1,466/yr
Median real estate taxes paid divided by median home value, Census ACS 2020 to 2024. DeSoto County: 0.60%. Actual bills depend on the assessment, exemptions and any non-homestead rate.
Supply
- Permits per 1,000 households
- 12.8
- DeSoto County, last 12 months
- National percentile
- 79th
- among US counties
910 new housing units permitted in 2025-09 to 2026-08, Census Building Permits Survey. A high figure means more new supply competing for tenants.
Nearby ZIP codes
| ZIP | Distance | Typical price | Rent | Gross yield | Cash flow /mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38671Southaven | 3.1 mi | $234,000 | $1,499 | 7.7% | -$483 |
| 38651Nesbit | 4.8 mi | $357,000 | $1,410* | 4.7% | -$1,352 |
| 38680Walls | 5.5 mi | $259,000 | $1,654 | 7.6% | -$486 |
| 38116Memphis | 6.1 mi | $157,000 | $924 | 7.1% | -$481 |
| 38672Southaven | 7.4 mi | $332,000 | $2,298 | 8.3% | -$418 |
| 38641Walls | 7.4 mi | $327,000 | $1,150* | 4.2% | -$1,363 |
| 38109Memphis | 8.5 mi | $92,000 | $1,162 | 15.1% | +$179 |
| 38118Memphis | 9.0 mi | $125,000 | $1,148 | 11.0% | -$60 |
* HUD Fair Market Rent, 2 bedroom (no Zillow rent index for that ZIP).
Run the numbers on a real listing
The calculator opens with this ZIP's figures. Swap in a listing's price and rent, your rate and your costs.
Open the calculator for 38637Questions
- Is 38637 good for rental property?
- On the typical home here, priced at $202,000 and renting for $1,501 a month (Zillow ZORI, Aug 2026), the gross yield is 8.9% and the estimated cap rate is 4.9%. At a 7.78% investor rate with 25% down, estimated cash flow is -$272 a month. The median gross yield across the 8,418 ZIP codes with full Zillow data is 5.6%. These are figures for a typical property, not a judgement on any particular one.
- What is the typical rent in 38637?
- Zillow's observed rent index for 38637 was $1,501 a month in August 2026, across all home types. HUD's FY2026 Small Area Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom here is $1,400, the 40th percentile of gross rents and the basis for Section 8 payment standards.
- What is the property tax rate in 38637?
- The effective property tax rate is about 0.73% of value (median taxes paid divided by median home value, Census ACS 2020 to 2024). On the typical $202,000 home that is about $1,466 a year. Your bill depends on the assessment and local exemptions.
- What interest rate makes a rental in 38637 break even?
- About 5.04%. Below that rate, the typical home here cash-flows with 25% down and the default costs; above it, it does not. Today's investor rate used here is 7.78%.
- How fast are prices and rents changing in 38637?
- Over the 12 months to August 2026, the typical home value changed +0.8% and the typical rent changed -1.6%. Prices rising faster than rents pushes yields down.
Sources and method
- Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), mid tier, smoothed and seasonally adjusted
Zillow Research. Read: 2026-08.
Typical home value by ZIP, county, metro and state, and the price trend.
- Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), all homes plus multifamily, smoothed
Zillow Research. Read: 2026-08.
Typical market rent by ZIP, county and metro, and the rent trend (tier A pages).
- HUD Small Area Fair Market Rents, FY2026
US Department of Housing and Urban Development. Read: FY2026.
Rent by bedroom count for every ZIP. The rent used on tier B pages, and a reference on all pages. It is the 40th percentile gross rent, so it runs below market.
- American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2020 to 2024 (B25103 median real estate taxes paid, B25077 median home value, B11001 households)
US Census Bureau. Read: 2020 to 2024.
Effective property tax rate (median taxes paid divided by median value) by ZIP code tabulation area, county and state; households for the permits ratio.
- Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, 30-year fixed (FRED series MORTGAGE30US)
Freddie Mac via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Read: 2026-09-24.
The weekly 30-year rate. The site adds a disclosed investor premium to it for the loan payment.
- Building Permits Survey, county monthly files
US Census Bureau. Read: 2025-09 to 2026-08.
New housing units permitted in the last 12 months per 1,000 households, a supply-pressure signal.
- NAIC Homeowners Insurance Report, data for 2023
National Association of Insurance Commissioners. Read: 2023.
Average HO-3 homeowners premium by state, multiplied by 1.2 as a landlord-policy assumption.
Data: Zillow Research (ZHVI, ZORI), HUD, US Census Bureau, Freddie Mac. Every formula is on the methodology page.
Estimates from public data for a typical property. Not investment, tax or legal advice. Your property, financing and costs will differ.