Rental numbers for ZIP 38133 (Bartlett, TN)
Negative cash flow at today's 7.78% investor rate with 25% down; the typical home breaks even at about 1.9%.
- Gross yield
- 6.9%
- rent x 12 / price
- Est. cap rate
- 3.3%
- NOI / price
- Cash flow
- -$720/mo
- at 7.78%, 25% down
- Typical price
- $273,000
- Zillow ZHVI, Aug 2026
- Typical rent
- $1,578/mo
- Zillow ZORI, Aug 2026
The pro forma
Typical home, default assumptions
| Operator | Line | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross rent | $18,936 | ||
| Vacancy | $947 | ||
| Management | $1,439 | ||
| Property tax | $2,810 | ||
| Insurance | $1,979 | ||
| Maintenance | $2,733 | ||
| Net operating income | $9,028 | ||
| Loan payments | $17,674 | ||
| Cash flow | -$8,645 |
| Operator | Line | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Typical price | $273,316 | ||
| Down payment (25%) | $68,329 | ||
| Loan | $204,987 | ||
| Rate | 7.78% | ||
| Monthly payment | $1,473 | ||
| Cash in | $76,528 | ||
| Cash-on-cash return | -11.3% | ||
| DSCR | 0.51 | ||
| Break-even rate | 1.95% |
Assumptions
Change them in the calculator- Down payment25%
- A common minimum for investment-property and DSCR loans.
- Interest rate7.78%
- Freddie Mac 30-year 7.03% (week of 2026-09-24) + 0.75 point investor premium.
- Loan term30 years
- Fixed, fully amortising.
- Closing costs3% of price
- Added to cash invested.
- Insurance$1,979 a year
- NAIC 2023 average homeowners (HO-3) premium for Tennessee, $1,649, x 1.2 for a landlord policy.
- Maintenance1% of price a year
- The 1% rule of thumb; older homes run higher.
- Vacancy5% of rent
- About 18 days empty a year.
- Management8% of collected rent
- A typical full-service fee; zero if you self-manage.
Trends
Five years to August 2026
- Price, 12 months
- -0.3%
- Rent, 12 months
- -1.2%
- Rent minus price growth
- -0.8 pts
- positive means yields are improving
Show the numbers
| Month | Typical value | Rent |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2021 | $234,631 | $1,395 |
| Aug 2022 | $279,294 | $1,477 |
| Aug 2023 | $277,935 | $1,554 |
| Aug 2024 | $278,102 | $1,549 |
| Aug 2025 | $274,217 | $1,597 |
| Aug 2026 | $273,316 | $1,578 |
Rent references
Two sources, never blended
| Source | Studio | 1 bed | 2 bed | 3 bed | 4 bed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HUD Small Area FMR, FY2026 | $1,320 | $1,440 | $1,590 | $2,100 | $2,440 |
| Zillow observed rent, Aug 2026 | $1,578 typical, all home types | ||||
HUD's Fair Market Rent is the 40th percentile gross rent (rent plus utilities) for a standard unit, and it is what Section 8 vouchers pay against. Zillow's index tracks asking rents on listed homes. The two measure different things, so they are shown side by side and never averaged. HUD area: Memphis, TN-MS-AR HUD Metro FMR Area.
Property tax
- Effective rate
- 1.03%
- ZIP area, ACS
- At the typical price
- $2,810/yr
Median real estate taxes paid divided by median home value, Census ACS 2020 to 2024. Shelby County: 0.97%. Actual bills depend on the assessment, exemptions and any non-homestead rate.
Supply
- Permits per 1,000 households
- 4.4
- Shelby County, last 12 months
- National percentile
- 45th
- among US counties
1,596 new housing units permitted in 2025-09 to 2026-08, Census Building Permits Survey. A high figure means more new supply competing for tenants.
Nearby ZIP codes
| ZIP | Distance | Typical price | Rent | Gross yield | Cash flow /mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38016Cordova | 3.0 mi | $293,000 | $1,506 | 6.2% | -$913 |
| 38135Bartlett | 3.5 mi | $298,000 | $1,879 | 7.5% | -$605 |
| 38134Bartlett | 4.6 mi | $227,000 | $1,222 | 6.5% | -$704 |
| 38018Cordova | 5.4 mi | $289,000 | $1,656 | 6.9% | -$732 |
| 38120Memphis | 7.0 mi | $423,000 | $1,518 | 4.3% | -$1,935 |
| 38128Memphis | 7.5 mi | $148,000 | $1,186 | 9.6% | -$173 |
| 38002Lakeland | 7.6 mi | $407,000 | $1,948 | 5.7% | -$1,284 |
| 38122Memphis | 8.2 mi | $126,000 | $1,089 | 10.4% | -$114 |
Run the numbers on a real listing
The calculator opens with this ZIP's figures. Swap in a listing's price and rent, your rate and your costs.
Open the calculator for 38133Questions
- Is 38133 good for rental property?
- On the typical home here, priced at $273,000 and renting for $1,578 a month (Zillow ZORI, Aug 2026), the gross yield is 6.9% and the estimated cap rate is 3.3%. At a 7.78% investor rate with 25% down, estimated cash flow is -$720 a month. The median gross yield across the 8,418 ZIP codes with full Zillow data is 5.6%. These are figures for a typical property, not a judgement on any particular one.
- What is the typical rent in 38133?
- Zillow's observed rent index for 38133 was $1,578 a month in August 2026, across all home types. HUD's FY2026 Small Area Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom here is $1,590, the 40th percentile of gross rents and the basis for Section 8 payment standards.
- What is the property tax rate in 38133?
- The effective property tax rate is about 1.03% of value (median taxes paid divided by median home value, Census ACS 2020 to 2024). On the typical $273,000 home that is about $2,810 a year. Your bill depends on the assessment and local exemptions.
- What interest rate makes a rental in 38133 break even?
- About 1.95%. Below that rate, the typical home here cash-flows with 25% down and the default costs; above it, it does not. Today's investor rate used here is 7.78%.
- How fast are prices and rents changing in 38133?
- Over the 12 months to August 2026, the typical home value changed -0.3% and the typical rent changed -1.2%. Prices rising faster than rents pushes yields down.
Sources and method
- Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), mid tier, smoothed and seasonally adjusted
Zillow Research. Read: 2026-08.
Typical home value by ZIP, county, metro and state, and the price trend.
- Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), all homes plus multifamily, smoothed
Zillow Research. Read: 2026-08.
Typical market rent by ZIP, county and metro, and the rent trend (tier A pages).
- HUD Small Area Fair Market Rents, FY2026
US Department of Housing and Urban Development. Read: FY2026.
Rent by bedroom count for every ZIP. The rent used on tier B pages, and a reference on all pages. It is the 40th percentile gross rent, so it runs below market.
- American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2020 to 2024 (B25103 median real estate taxes paid, B25077 median home value, B11001 households)
US Census Bureau. Read: 2020 to 2024.
Effective property tax rate (median taxes paid divided by median value) by ZIP code tabulation area, county and state; households for the permits ratio.
- Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, 30-year fixed (FRED series MORTGAGE30US)
Freddie Mac via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Read: 2026-09-24.
The weekly 30-year rate. The site adds a disclosed investor premium to it for the loan payment.
- Building Permits Survey, county monthly files
US Census Bureau. Read: 2025-09 to 2026-08.
New housing units permitted in the last 12 months per 1,000 households, a supply-pressure signal.
- NAIC Homeowners Insurance Report, data for 2023
National Association of Insurance Commissioners. Read: 2023.
Average HO-3 homeowners premium by state, multiplied by 1.2 as a landlord-policy assumption.
Data: Zillow Research (ZHVI, ZORI), HUD, US Census Bureau, Freddie Mac. Every formula is on the methodology page.
Estimates from public data for a typical property. Not investment, tax or legal advice. Your property, financing and costs will differ.