Rental numbers for ZIP 16311 (Carlton, PA)
Negative cash flow at today's 7.78% investor rate with 25% down; the typical home breaks even at about 0.0%.
- Gross yield
- 6.3%
- rent x 12 / price
- Est. cap rate
- 2.5%
- NOI / price
- Cash flow
- -$613/mo
- at 7.78%, 25% down
- Typical price
- $186,000
- Zillow ZHVI, Aug 2026
- HUD Fair Market Rent
- $970/mo
- HUD Fair Market Rent, 2 bedroom, FY2026
The pro forma
Typical home, default assumptions
| Operator | Line | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross rent | $11,640 | ||
| Vacancy | $582 | ||
| Management | $885 | ||
| Property tax | $2,178 | ||
| Insurance | $1,460 | ||
| Maintenance | $1,861 | ||
| Net operating income | $4,674 | ||
| Loan payments | $12,036 | ||
| Cash flow | -$7,362 |
| Operator | Line | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Typical price | $186,131 | ||
| Down payment (25%) | $46,533 | ||
| Loan | $139,598 | ||
| Rate | 7.78% | ||
| Monthly payment | $1,003 | ||
| Cash in | $52,117 | ||
| Cash-on-cash return | -14.1% | ||
| DSCR | 0.39 | ||
| Break-even rate | 0.03% |
Assumptions
Change them in the calculator- Down payment25%
- A common minimum for investment-property and DSCR loans.
- Interest rate7.78%
- Freddie Mac 30-year 7.03% (week of 2026-09-24) + 0.75 point investor premium.
- Loan term30 years
- Fixed, fully amortising.
- Closing costs3% of price
- Added to cash invested.
- Insurance$1,460 a year
- NAIC 2023 average homeowners (HO-3) premium for Pennsylvania, $1,217, x 1.2 for a landlord policy.
- Maintenance1% of price a year
- The 1% rule of thumb; older homes run higher.
- Vacancy5% of rent
- About 18 days empty a year.
- Management8% of collected rent
- A typical full-service fee; zero if you self-manage.
Trends
Five years to August 2026
- Price, 12 months
- +8.6%
- Rent, 12 months
- n/a
- no Zillow rent series here
- Rent minus price growth
- n/a
- positive means yields are improving
Show the numbers
| Month | Typical value |
|---|---|
| Aug 2021 | $214,554 |
| Aug 2022 | $228,211 |
| Aug 2023 | $201,421 |
| Aug 2024 | $184,795 |
| Aug 2025 | $171,341 |
| Aug 2026 | $186,131 |
Rent references
Two sources, never blended
| Source | Studio | 1 bed | 2 bed | 3 bed | 4 bed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HUD Small Area FMR, FY2026 | $700 | $770 | $970 | $1,300 | $1,460 |
| Zillow observed rent, Aug 2026 | not published for this ZIP | ||||
HUD's Fair Market Rent is the 40th percentile gross rent (rent plus utilities) for a standard unit, and it is what Section 8 vouchers pay against. Zillow's index tracks asking rents on listed homes. The two measure different things, so they are shown side by side and never averaged. HUD area: Mercer County, PA.
Property tax
- Effective rate
- 1.17%
- ZIP area, ACS
- At the typical price
- $2,178/yr
Median real estate taxes paid divided by median home value, Census ACS 2020 to 2024. Mercer County: 1.18%. Actual bills depend on the assessment, exemptions and any non-homestead rate.
Supply
- Permits per 1,000 households
- 1.6
- Mercer County, last 12 months
- National percentile
- 21th
- among US counties
72 new housing units permitted in 2025-09 to 2026-08, Census Building Permits Survey. A high figure means more new supply competing for tenants.
Nearby ZIP codes
| ZIP | Distance | Typical price | Rent | Gross yield | Cash flow /mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16362Utica | 4.1 mi | $173,000 | $970* | 6.7% | -$511 |
| 16314Cochranton | 4.4 mi | $184,000 | $970* | 6.3% | -$613 |
| 16145Sandy Lake | 6.0 mi | $208,000 | $970* | 5.6% | -$741 |
| 16114Clarks Mills | 8.5 mi | $200,000 | $990* | 5.9% | -$643 |
| 16130Hadley | 9.3 mi | $188,000 | $970* | 6.2% | -$584 |
| 16153Stoneboro | 9.9 mi | $188,000 | $1,040* | 6.7% | -$521 |
| 16317Cooperstown | 11.0 mi | $156,000 | $1,450* | 11.2% | +$21 |
| 16323Franklin | 11.4 mi | $130,000 | $925 | 8.5% | -$251 |
* HUD Fair Market Rent, 2 bedroom (no Zillow rent index for that ZIP).
Run the numbers on a real listing
The calculator opens with this ZIP's figures. Swap in a listing's price and rent, your rate and your costs.
Open the calculator for 16311Questions
- Is 16311 good for rental property?
- On the typical home here, priced at $186,000 and renting for $970 a month (HUD Fair Market Rent, 2 bedroom, FY2026), the gross yield is 6.3% and the estimated cap rate is 2.5%. At a 7.78% investor rate with 25% down, estimated cash flow is -$613 a month. The median gross yield across the 8,418 ZIP codes with full Zillow data is 5.6%. These are figures for a typical property, not a judgement on any particular one.
- What is the typical rent in 16311?
- Zillow does not publish a rent index for 16311. HUD's FY2026 Small Area Fair Market Rent for a 2-bedroom here is $970, the 40th percentile of gross rents and the basis for Section 8 payment standards.
- What is the property tax rate in 16311?
- The effective property tax rate is about 1.17% of value (median taxes paid divided by median home value, Census ACS 2020 to 2024). On the typical $186,000 home that is about $2,178 a year. Your bill depends on the assessment and local exemptions.
- What interest rate makes a rental in 16311 break even?
- About 0.03%. Below that rate, the typical home here cash-flows with 25% down and the default costs; above it, it does not. Today's investor rate used here is 7.78%.
- How fast are prices and rents changing in 16311?
- Over the 12 months to August 2026, the typical home value changed +8.6%.
Sources and method
- Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), mid tier, smoothed and seasonally adjusted
Zillow Research. Read: 2026-08.
Typical home value by ZIP, county, metro and state, and the price trend.
- HUD Small Area Fair Market Rents, FY2026
US Department of Housing and Urban Development. Read: FY2026.
Rent by bedroom count for every ZIP. The rent used on tier B pages, and a reference on all pages. It is the 40th percentile gross rent, so it runs below market.
- American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2020 to 2024 (B25103 median real estate taxes paid, B25077 median home value, B11001 households)
US Census Bureau. Read: 2020 to 2024.
Effective property tax rate (median taxes paid divided by median value) by ZIP code tabulation area, county and state; households for the permits ratio.
- Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, 30-year fixed (FRED series MORTGAGE30US)
Freddie Mac via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Read: 2026-09-24.
The weekly 30-year rate. The site adds a disclosed investor premium to it for the loan payment.
- Building Permits Survey, county monthly files
US Census Bureau. Read: 2025-09 to 2026-08.
New housing units permitted in the last 12 months per 1,000 households, a supply-pressure signal.
- NAIC Homeowners Insurance Report, data for 2023
National Association of Insurance Commissioners. Read: 2023.
Average HO-3 homeowners premium by state, multiplied by 1.2 as a landlord-policy assumption.
Data: Zillow Research (ZHVI, ZORI), HUD, US Census Bureau, Freddie Mac. Every formula is on the methodology page.
Estimates from public data for a typical property. Not investment, tax or legal advice. Your property, financing and costs will differ.